Dinamika, Persepsi dan Aspirasi Politik Belia Undi18 Sabah: Model Konseptual dan Kerangka Analisis
Abstract
Sejarah baharu tercipta di Malaysia pada tahun 2019 apabila “Undi18” merupakan satu inisiatif bagi memperkukuh amalan demokrasi melalui penyertaan inklusif golongan belia dalam politik, yang telah membolehkan individu muda berusia 18 tahun ke atas untuk mengundi serta bertanding sebagai calon dalam pilihan raya. Kesan pelaksanaan “Undi18” telah membuka perdebatan tentang sejauh mana tahap kesedaran dan literasi politik serta penghayatan tentang peranan, hak dan tanggungjawab kewarganegaraan demokratik khususnya dalam kalangan golongan belia di Malaysia yang bakal mencorakkan hala tuju dan masa depan negara. Sehubungan dengan itu, makalah ini bermatlamat memperkenalkan suatu model konseptual dan kerangka analisis bagi menyelidik, mengenalpasti serta menelusuri persepsi, pandangan dan aspirasi politik yang menentukan trend, corak dan pola pengundian golongan belia ‘Undi18’ di Sabah. Secara spesifik, ia mencadangkan pengaplikasian suatu model yang berteraskan kepada beberapa teori/konsep politik dan politik elektoral (electoral politics) yang berkait rapat dan saling memperkukuh antara satu sama lain sebagai kerangka analisis. Model tersebut adalah bersandarkan kepada dua pembolehubah yang mewakili ketiga-tiga objektif kajian, yakni “dinamika”, “persepsi” dan “aspirasi” politik belia Undi18 di Sabah. Pembolehubah “dinamika” dan “persepsi” bertindak sebagai Pembolehubah Bebas (Independent Variable) yang merangkumi komponen dan konstruk berteraskan kelompok teori/konsep politik dan politik elektoral yang cenderung mempengaruhi “aspirasi” ataupun keyakinan dan kecenderungan sokongan mahupun pilihan politik belia kohot Undi18 Sabah, yakni Pembolehubah Tetap (Dependent Variable) dalam model konseptual tersebut. Pembolehubah Bebas merangkumi lapan konstruk yang lazim dikaitkan dengan politik dan dinamika elektoral Malaysia, iaitu sentimen primordial, semangat kenegerian, hubungan Persekutuan-Negeri, budaya patron-client, pembangunan, isu sosio-ekonomi, penggunaan media, governan dan tadbir urus.
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