Revisiting Growth Dynamics: How Corruption Control Moderates Asymmetric Foreign Financial Inflows in EAC Partner States
Abstract
Corruption control in East African Community (EAC) partner states successfully moderated the impacts of foreign financial inflows on growth by enhancing the absorptive capacity from moderate external debt, FDI, ODA positive shocks, and exchange management. Extant literature has largely disregarded the asymmetric impacts of foreign financial inflows on growth in EAC bloc using asymmetric variables under governance indicators. This study fills the gap by analysing the asymmetric interplays from external debt, FDI, ODA, and exchange rate to growth from 6 countries in EAC bloc by assessing their long-run impacts from 1996 to 2023. The study used the panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) as the baseline model and employed the dynamic common correlated effects (DCCEs) as the robustness checks while carrying out structural breaks in the panels. Our findings, in the absence of corruption control, revealed significant debt-overhang that crowds-out FDI inflows, fungibility in ODA positive shocks, and exchange rate volatilities inimical to growth in the bloc. The moderation impacts of corruption control advocates institutional governance is fundamental for maximising the impact of foreign financial inflows, while the human development index, infrastructure and export serve as control variables. These results insinuate that to boost economic growth; receivers of foreign financial inflows should prioritise nurturing institutional frameworks and governance fundamentally. The development partners ought to target foreign financial inflows towards infrastructure projects, export diversification and human development skills to promote sustainable economic growth in the bloc.
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