Economic Interdependence as Strategic Leverage: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Sino-Turkish Relations and Their Political Ramifications
Abstract
Sino-Turkish ties comprise of complex interlinkages unlike singular constraints that have been described in existing literature. Therefore, this study analyzes Sino-Turkish ties as a strategic interaction under asymmetric interdependence. A simple sequential game that has been interpreted in repeated form models how China adjusts the cooperation environment. Subsequently, Turkey chooses between accommodation and balancing under domestic and external constraints. The methodology of this study operationalizes capability asymmetry, Turkey’s exposure, and Turkey’s vulnerability. For this purpose, WDI data has been used to compare stances over three phases: 2017-2019, 2020-2022 and 2023. Findings suggest that there is a persistent asymmetry that creates leverage potential. However, macro vulnerability mainly sets behavioral bounds which sustains managed friction instead of a clean rupture.
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