Dari Kesetiaan Kepada Pragmatisme: Analisis Tingkah Laku Pengundi India dan Kemerosotan Pengaruh MIC Pasca PRU-12
Abstract
Kajian ini dijalankan untuk meneliti kecenderungan politik pengundi India susulan kemerosotan prestasi Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) dalam pilihan raya umum bermula Pilihan Raya Umum ke-12 (PRU-12). Kemerosotan prestasi MIC juga menimbulkan persoalan mengenai legitimasi parti tersebut sebagai wakil utama kaum India dalam kerajaan Malaysia. Kajian ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif berasaskan analisis tematik bagi mengenal pasti faktor-faktor utama yang mempengaruhi pilihan mengundi dalam kalangan pengundi India di Malaysia dalam tempoh pasca-PRU-12. Data kajian dikumpulkan melalui temu bual bersandarkan soal selidik separa berstruktur dengan 30 orang informan yang mewakili pelbagai latar belakang kaum India. Semua temu bual dirakam, ditranskripsikan secara verbatim dan dianalisis secara sistematik menggunakan perisian NVivo bagi mengenal pasti tema-tema dominan yang muncul daripada set data. Kerangka konseptual yang digunakan dalam kajian ini adalah model klasik tingkah laku pengundian, iaitu model sosiologi, identifikasi parti dan teori pilihan rasional. Pengintegrasian dimensi emosi dalam analisis membolehkan pemahaman yang lebih mendalam dan komprehensif terhadap dinamika tingkah laku politik dalam kalangan pengundi India di Malaysia. Dapatan kajian menunjukkan berlakunya peralihan yang signifikan daripada kesetiaan tradisional berasaskan faktor sosiologi dan identifikasi parti kepada motivasi pengundian yang semakin dipengaruhi oleh pertimbangan rasional dan emosi. Emosi afektif seperti kemarahan, kekecewaan, ketidakpuasan hati serta aspirasi terhadap maruah muncul sebagai faktor penting dalam membentuk pilihan pengundi. Perubahan ini mencerminkan transformasi yang lebih luas dalam landskap politik negara serta menunjukkan peningkatan tahap kesedaran dan kematangan politik dalam kalangan pengundi India di Malaysia dalam tempoh pasca PRU-12.
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